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Argus Research
Analysts’ Notes
The Analysts' Notes Service brings you the latest, timeliest, and most action-oriented research at least three times per day. The Notes Service features the Market Digest and Market Update, which include write-ups from our staff of analysts detailing ratings changes, earnings estimate revisions, analysis of merger & acquisition activity, meetings with management and other events. The Notes Service also includes the Market Watch, which typically analyzes the economic report of the day and also presents market movers, technical analysis and a stock idea. Our newest Notes report is the Market Movers, which applies a layer of technical analysis to the fundamental analysis we perform on hundreds of leading U.S. companies.
- Market Watch
Market Watch User's Guide
Each morning, before the New York Stock Exchange opening bell, we publish a comprehensive, integrated report of analysis and information designed to help brokers, traders, portfolio managers and individual investors put the markets in perspective and prepare for their day. The report is delivered real-time via the Internet, e-mail or fax.
Features of the report include:
Market Outlook boils down our views of the stock market to one word. Over the next 10 days, we are either bullish or bearish. Our call comes from intensive fundamental research into price, earnings and interest rate trends, as well as ongoing monitoring of technical activity (see below). In the Portfolio Strategy subsection, we give guidance as to the composition of an individual's portfolio in the context of our outlook. We assume each portfolio contains an industry-standard three asset classes: stocks, bonds and cash. The benchmark portfolio is 55% stocks, 35% bonds and 10% cash.
Today's Market Movers is for day traders. We highlight four important pre-opening developments and make an assumption about how each is likely to affect overall equity trading. In this section, we'll touch on overnight trading abroad, earnings that were released after the market closed, or a deal that was announced prior to the NYSE opening. Other short-term market indicators in the report include the change in the Long Bond Yield, the CRB Index, Five-Day Call/Put Ratio and Momentum.
Statistics Diary which takes up the largest portion of the first column, includes our key fundamental assumptions about the stock and bond markets and the economy; the latest, most important financial market data; and several technical indicators, which offer a glimpse into the underpinnings of the market. In one sense, these are the pieces to the puzzle: how is the market valued. In another sense, they give an indication about the direction of the market. And they also serve as a scorecard for recent performance.
The Daily Spotlight complete with a graph, is set aside for the most important investment or economic trend of the day. If the Labor Department releases its monthly Nonfarm Payrolls report at 8:30 a.m., clients will get our full analysis before the stock market opens. We also use this space to analyze key forecasts and assumptions that are published in the Statistics Diary. The trend in the Spotlight is regularly integrated into the Stockpicker's Corner.
The Stockpicker's Corner provides a daily action-oriented stock-purchase idea. The company that is featured may fit in with the larger theme analyzed in the Daily Spotlight. It may be a company that has been targeted in a takeover. Or perhaps a security analyst recently upgraded the company's stock.
Together, these five research components provide information and guidance on the U.S. economy, stock and bond markets, portfolio management and specific investment opportunities.
- Market Digest & Update
- Action Alert!
This report notifies our clients of major Research events and important recommendation changes. For example, prior to our monthly Economics and Research conference calls we send out an Action Alert! report. And when we make changes to our Focus List in the Portfolio Selector or our Model Portfolios, we send out an Action Alert! Quick tips: Our Economics Conference Call is always held at 10 a.m. on the Wednesday before the government's monthly Nonfarm Payrolls report. Our Research Conference Call is always held at 11 a.m. on the second Wednesday of the month. We typically make changes to the Model Portfolios in the middle of the month
Market Update
Midday, we update our clients with another round of Analysts' Notes. Echoing our top-down approach to investing, the Market Update begins with a financial market overview and outlook, written by a senior member of our Research staff. We also include a table with key statistical data: how the indexes are doing, which industries are hot and cold, which stocks are moving the markets. Then, the report focuses on stocks and our Analysts' Notes. The notes can encompass a wide range of topics, including ratings changes, earnings estimates changes, merger & acquisition analysis and activity, visits with corporate managers, and special situations. At the end of each week, the Analysts' Notes are condensed into the Weekly Staff Report, where they are organized by topic. Quick tip: We include headlines at the top of the report, which give readers a quick glimpse of the analysis in the pages to follow.
Market Digest
Our clients start their day with our Analysts' Notes in the Market Digest. Echoing our top-down approach to investing, the Market Digest begins with a financial market overview and outlook, written by a senior member of our Research staff. We'll discuss the recent equity and bond market trends, and comment on the upcoming events for the day ahead. Then, the report focuses on stocks and our Analysts' Notes. The notes can encompass a wide range of topics, including ratings changes, earnings estimates changes, merger & acquisition analysis and activity, visits with corporate managers, and special situations. Quick tip: We include headlines at the top of the report, which give readers a quick glimpse at the analysis in the pages to follow.
Research Reports
- Weekly Staff Report
Our oldest report, the Weekly Staff Report follows our top-down investment framework. In the initial section of the report, our Economics Department details its proprietary forecasts for business activity over the next 6-to-12 months. We address Federal Reserve activity, international developments, market trends and prospects. We also publish tables detailing recent economic data, as well as our forecasts for upcoming economic releases. In the balance of the report, we publish Analysts' Notes on individual companies and industries. The Notes are organized topically, including Focus List, Changes, Growth Stocks, Value Stocks, Stocks to Avoid, Special Situations and Utility Scope. On the last page of the report, we publish three popular tables: Our Analysts' Best Picks, Master List Changes for the latest week, and our five most recent ratings upgrades. Quick Tip: For more in-depth analysis of the economy, check out Economy at a Glance or the Viewpoint. For more in-depth analysis of specific stocks, check out the Investment Analysis reports.
- Economy at a Glance
This four-page report, delivered twice a month, is a pictorial analysis and forecast of the economy. It contains a series of bar charts and graphs portraying various economic trends in the economy and financial markets. The back page contains portions of our Economic Notebook, which is an anecdotal compilation of excerpts from newspapers, magazines and other business periodicals that are expected to have a significant impact on the U.S. economic outlook. These comments are largely institutional, political, financial and industrial in nature. Quick Tip: For a more focused look at the economy and interest rates, check out the Viewpoint. For an in-depth look into economic topics such as Inflation and Employment, check out the Chartbook.
- Investment Analysis: Industry
Our analysts cover their sectors in-depth in the Investment Analysis reports. These reports generally compare the leading companies in each industry in the context of our Six-Point approach to investment decision-making. The analysts compile charts and tables to assist clients in making comparisons. Quick Tip: Retainer clients that need information about stocks outside our Universe of coverage may contact the Security Analysts for information and insight.
- Special Situations & Screens
In this monthly four-page report, the our Market Strategy Department addresses an important market trend, and then highlights stocks under coverage that provide compelling opportunities in the context of that trend. This report also includes our popular Preferred Stock Screen, and our Special Situations Screen, which reviews thousands of stocks to determine short lists of companies that meet specific investment criteria. Quick Tip: Many of our themes, such as "Social Investing," have come from clients.
- Fixed Income Strategy
The Fixed Income Strategy Report offers insight and specific investment ideas related to fixed income securities. The report includes detailed economic and interest-rate forecasts, and an analysis of the Treasury yield curve and the corporate and municipal bond markets. To generate investment ideas, we have developed screens that draw from the securities issued by the hundreds of leading companies under coverage. These include our popular Preferred Stock and Corporate Bond screens. By using this report in conjunction with our Portfolio Selector or Model Portfolios, clients can offer a full array of investment ideas spanning both stocks and bonds.
- Power & Utility Monthly
- Viewpoint
This monthly four-page report is the definitive publication for in-depth forecasts on the economy and interest rates. Each report starts with commentary from the Economics Department detailing the economic and interest rate outlook. The bulk of the report is devoted to a graphical presentation of pertinent economic and interest rate statistics, data and indexes, including the proprietary -- and highly accurate -- The Leading Fed Funds Index. A forecast table is provided on the back of each report. Quick Tip: We publish forecasts for the monthly indicators such as Nonfarm Payrolls or the Consumer Price Index each week in the Weekly Staff Report.
- Master List
A 16-page monthly report, listing all companies we cover, their current ratings and dates on which those ratings were established. The index, which provides a list of all reports printed within the last six months, is an important tool for monitoring portfolios. On the back page of this report, we publish the track record for our Portfolio Selector Focus List of stocks. Quick Tip: To follow ratings changes between Master List publication dates, check the back page of the Weekly Staff Report.